Battleground: Ohio

asiadmin | October 28, 2020  | Politics | No Comments

Up for grabs in Ohio is a precious 18 electoral college votes. Starting in 1856 and up until 1912, the state has been almost exclusively Republican but then, in 1912, the Democrats started making gains and the two parties have been see-sawing ever since. And the races are usually pretty tight.

In the last 5 elections, the popular vote has resulted in 3 GOP wins and 2 for the Democrats, with neither one ever gaining more than 52% of the vote. In 2016, Trump took it with 51.7% of the vote to Clinton’s 43.6%. So neither the Red Team nor the Blue Team can take Ohio for granted.

Ohio’s population of 11,689,100 from the last Census has grown the 45,000 residents recorded in 1800 but its growth hasn’t been as fast as most other states. White Americans comprise the most populous group, with a little over 82.7% of the population while African Americans represent about 12%. The population is 53% Protestant, with 22% unaffiliated to any religion and 18% reporting as Catholic. Other faiths, including Muslims, Buddhists, Jews, Mormon, represent less that 1% each of the population.

Among the issues that Polly sees affecting voter intent are worries about the economy, the integrity of the elections, the BLM movement and COVID-19. This possibly explains why Ohio’s voters have been struggling to pick a side. Over the last month, Trump and Biden have been trading places as the one likely to get those 18 votes. They’ve never been very far apart, 50.3% is Biden’s biggest lead, but it looks like Trump is pulling ahead going into the final week of this election.

While Trump may be pulling ahead for now, let this be a reminder about the volatility of this election. Prior to the Vice-Presidents’ debate, Joe Biden had been in the lead. Following the debate on October 7th, Biden’s numbers dipped and never fully recovered. But we’re talking about, at most, a 2.05% difference between the two candidates. This means that some other unforeseen event could easily upset this apple cart.

Photo of Cincinnati by Oz Seyrek on Unsplash

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