Has Trump jumped the shark?

asiadmin | October 9, 2020  | CoViD-19, Politics | 2 Comments

With 25 days left to go in the US Presidential elections, Donald Trump’s comeback seems to have stalled, according to Advanced Symbolics’ Polly, the AI-based polling engine. After two days of growth in projected electoral college votes for Donald Trump, Joe Biden gained 15 votes overnight to bring him closer to his all-time high of 342 projected votes.

The popular vote remains unchanged with Biden leading at 54% to Trump’s 46% but there have been some ripples of changes as those fluctuate by fractions of percentage points on a daily basis. When Trump was first hospitalised, popular support for him went up by half a percentage point but he quickly lost the advantage as the week wore on.

The close races are in Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona, Texas and Florida; in these states there are 4 or fewer percentage points separating the candidates. Biden has made small gains in those states leading to the 15 vote gain. Contributing to that, there was considerable micro-movement in many of the states that are not likely to turn blue anytime soon; they’ve all seen a small uptick in support for the Democrats. These include Kentucky (Biden +1.7%), Alabama (Biden +2.6%), Mississipi (Biden +2.3%) — a few states, like Nebraska (Trump +1.5%) and Louisiana (Trump +1.2%) have gotten a deeper shade of red but overall support for Trump has waned.

Among the issues influencing each party’s voters following the debates, it seems that Kamala Harris and Mike Pence have neither gained nor lost any supporters. Republican voters still remain concerned about lockdowns and riots while Democrats focus on the economy, the Supreme Court nomination process, Trump’s taxes and Black Lives Matter.

Photo by Laura College on Unsplash

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2 thoughts on “Has Trump jumped the shark?

  1. It’s fascinating to see the latest trends which seem to indicate a slight upsurge for Biden. I wonder at what threshold/criteria excempting any unforseen events, Polly will be ready to call the election. Of course we still have a number of weeks to go.

    1. Due to the volatility of this campaign, Polly’s predictions can go stale pretty quickly. We stand by the numbers at the time they’re released but as we’ve all seen, things can swing in many one of many different directions in a very short period of time!

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