Photo by Hermes Rivera on Unsplash

With less than two weeks to go the Conservatives are looking to make gains on Vancouver Island, while the Liberals may not be safe in three seats in downtown Toronto. Polly—Canada’s only AI pollster—looked at the voting intention in 6 close races as of October 10th.

The Conservatives are looking to take 3 seats from the NDP. In Courtenay–Alberni, Cowichan–Malahat–Langford, and North Island–Powell River the Conservatives are leading or virtually tied with the NDP, who currently hold these three seats.

Meanwhile in downtown Toronto the NDP is closing in on the Liberals. In Parkdale–High Park, Toronto–Danforth, and Davenport we see a tightening two-way race. The Liberals took all three of these seats from the NDP in 2015, and in Davenport, defeated MP Andrew Cash is looking to flip that seat back to Orange.

While there is still time for candidates to break-out before election day, with advance polls open through the long weekend, these races could be decided by the ability of the parties to efficiently turnout their supporters. 

Research Information
This study was performed by Advanced Symbolics Inc. on behalf the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers

Study period for voter support projections:
October 9–10, 2019

Sample Sizes:

  • Courtenay–Alberni: 560
  • Cowichan–Malahat–Langford: 347
  • North Island–Powell River: 315
  • Davenport: 865
  • Toronto–Danforth: 1,034
  • Parkdale–High Park: 800


  • Courtenay–Alberni: ±6%
  • Cowichan–Malahat–Langford: ±5%
  • North Island–Powell River: ±5%
  • Davenport: ±5%
  • Toronto–Danforth: ±5%
  • Parkdale–High Park: ±6%
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