With less than two weeks to go the Conservatives are looking to make gains on Vancouver Island, while the Liberals may not be safe in three seats in downtown Toronto. Polly—Canada’s only AI pollster—looked at the voting intention in 6 close races as of October 10th.
The Conservatives are looking to take 3 seats from the NDP. In Courtenay–Alberni, Cowichan–Malahat–Langford, and North Island–Powell River the Conservatives are leading or virtually tied with the NDP, who currently hold these three seats.



Meanwhile in downtown Toronto the NDP is closing in on the Liberals. In Parkdale–High Park, Toronto–Danforth, and Davenport we see a tightening two-way race. The Liberals took all three of these seats from the NDP in 2015, and in Davenport, defeated MP Andrew Cash is looking to flip that seat back to Orange.



While there is still time for candidates to break-out before election day, with advance polls open through the long weekend, these races could be decided by the ability of the parties to efficiently turnout their supporters.
Research Information
This study was performed by Advanced Symbolics Inc. on behalf the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers
Study period for voter support projections:
October 9–10, 2019
Sample Sizes:
- Courtenay–Alberni: 560
- Cowichan–Malahat–Langford: 347
- North Island–Powell River: 315
- Davenport: 865
- Toronto–Danforth: 1,034
- Parkdale–High Park: 800
Error:
- Courtenay–Alberni: ±6%
- Cowichan–Malahat–Langford: ±5%
- North Island–Powell River: ±5%
- Davenport: ±5%
- Toronto–Danforth: ±5%
- Parkdale–High Park: ±6%
Assuming your statistics are correct, voters need to vote strategically, just as they did in 2015 to oust Harper. If they don’t want another destructive conservative PM, they need to remember they were successful with their strategic voting in 2015 and to repeat this success this year.
If Andrew Cash loses the Davenport riding it will be because of a lack of hustle that led to him ignoring the North West portion of his riding for the third time. You’d never know that the Liberal candidate was the incumbent based on how hard she’s working.