The Nevada Democratic caucuses will wrap up this Saturday with a final tally of the votes cast earlier during the week. Nevada is significant because it is the first state to be tallied that has a diverse population. New Hampshire and Iowa are primarily (more than 90%) white states while Nevada’s population is about 66% white. Nevada therefore is a bellwether state for the black and Latino vote. This is significant for candidates like Vice-President Biden whose performance in early voting has been disappointing.

What does Polly think is going to happen?

While some polls have Buttigiege at 10% support in Nevada, Polly sees him pulling in over 16% of the electorate.  Most of this is coming from people who were previously supporting Biden — Polly sees Biden scoring a disappointing 12% of the vote and finishing in 5th place, before heading into South Carolina.

Warren and Klobuchar continue swapping voters.  At the moment Warren is winning that race with 15% compared to Klobuchar’s 12%.  Polly sees the swing vote between these two candidates as largely female.  In Nevada, Warren is more successful among women voters that she has been previously in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Steyer is the wild card in this caucus.  At 11% he may be ruled non-viable early in many precincts.  Where his support goes could decide the race between Buttigiege, Biden, Warren and Sanders.  In those precincts, Polly sees most of Steyer’s support moving to Biden, making Biden a viable second place against Buttigiege.

In the end, Polly is forecasting Sanders to win Nevada;  Buttigiege takes second. Biden may be a strong 3rd if Steyer is ruled a non-viable candidate early in the day. And Michael Bloomberg? Well, let’s just say he has room to grow.

Candidate         % of vote
Sanders            30.1
Buttigieg           16.0
Warren             15.0
Klobuchar         13.4
Biden               12.4
Steyer              11.2
Gabbard  1.3
Bloomberg 0.7

Sample size:  15,973

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