Tonight’s the night for New Hampshire democrats. What kind of night will it be for the Dems’ candidates? After the Iowa caucus fiasco, will there be a clear winner this time around?

Well, Polly has no trouble picking a winner. Using a sample of more than 12,000 people, Polly sees a big drop for Joe Biden (from 19.98% to 11.10%), mostly at the expense of Pete Buttigieg who garnered 21.42% support from New Hampshire voters vs his 16.82% in Iowa. Meanwhile, back in the Sanders camp, Polly sees Bernie taking the lead with 25.54% versus his Iowa showing of 21.47%.  Most of the other candidates scored roughly the same, plus or minus a few points while Elizabeth Warren’s popularity rose from 12.22% in last week’s caucus to 15.44% yesterday.

Polly notes that the difference between the lead candidates’ results becomes larger when only male voters are considered; they tend to prefer Sanders to Buttigieg while the opposite is true for women. Biden and the other candidates seem to appeal almost equally to both.

Remember though, popular vote doesn’t always translate into a win. It’s the delegate count that makes the difference. And when the delegates start walking Polly just sits back and watches.

Research Information:

Date Range: Feb. 10, 2020

Sample Size: 12,265

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