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Come election day, the Liberals are most likely to form a minority government, according to Polly, Canada’s only AI pollster.
Entering the final weekend before election day, Advanced Symbolics’ AI—Polly—sees the Liberals with a 77% chance to form a minority government. Polly has been tracking a representative sample of 277,773 Canadians throughout the campaign and sees the Liberal Party with the highest chance of forming a minority government once the ballots are counted.
As of September 26, the Liberals were approaching majority territory but have dropped consistently, especially since the French-language debate on October 10. There has been a consistent decline in seat count projections for the Liberals as the Bloc Québécois and NDP have seen significant gains.
According to Polly, the Conservative Party’s projected seat count has been more consistent throughout the election campaign and the party has a 17% chance to form a minority government.
The chance of any party forming a majority government is only 5%.