Polly has looked at the Iowa caucuses and has predicted a Bernie Sanders victory mostly due to a shift in voters towards Elizabeth Warren, at the expense of support for Joe Bidden.

When looking at the forecast numbers, the story isn’t between Sanders and Biden (although polls have shown them neck-to-neck for the past few days), but the shift in momentum for Warren, Polly sees Warren cracking 15 percent of the vote, which is significantly higher than the 13-14 percent polls have been showing. These votes come at the expense of Biden, who will drop to 20 percent for the first time since the Democratic Debate on January 15.

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