Polly’s post-election monitor pinpoints protest hotspots
In the wake of the U.S. presidential election, Polly is tracking heightened political unrest in key regions across the states, including support for President Donald Trump’s claims of widespread tampering, voter fraud and a ‘stolen’ election. To track the impact these claims have on potential violence and civil unrest, ASI designed a protest heat map to help better understand the areas in which online engagement on this subject is abnormally high. Polly can geolocate these regions and highlight exactly which metropolitan areas are experiencing 25 percent or greater engagement than the expected levels.
In previous studies, Polly has found that critical mass above the 25 percent threshold is a strong indicator of potential political protests. Metropolitan areas that are highlighted red, represent at-risk states that are above this threshold. It would also follow that the locations highlighted in dark red are showing strong engagement and support for the claim that the election was stolen from the incumbent President Trump.
With controversy brewing, in some quarters, over the integrity of this year’s election, Polly is doing her part to pinpoint these problematic areas.
How to interpret the map
Based on the republican vote we can estimate how many people in a city we would expect would be talking about “stealing the vote” based on random chance. If we see much more of those people talking then there is some sort of movement afoot which could lead to protests. Remember, in this case Polly is only monitoring people she has identified as Republican-leaning.
The numbers you will see when you hover above a region indicate the degree to which the amount of chatter differs from what was expected. So zero percent means the twitter chatter is what was expected while a negative amount indicates the chatter is less that what Polly expected. When you get into positive numbers, like +50% for example, we see more chances of civil unrest or street-level protests.
This heat map will be updated daily at 9am EST, so make sure to tune in and follow Polly’s projections.
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