No one was able to unseat Justin Trudeau in last night’s English-language debate, as the Liberal leader managed to avoid any major fumbles and hold on to a minority government according to a projected seat count by Polly—Canada’s only AI pollster.
If the election were held today, Polly says the most likely scenario would see the Liberals win 163 seats—just a few shy of a majority—followed by the Conservatives with 132 seats.
Although the Liberals remain in minority territory, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh was the clear winner of the debate among viewers, with 15x more people discussing Singh after the debate compared to before it started. The strong showing by Singh helped the party pick up three seats since Polly’s last seat projection on Oct. 3, but it wasn’t enough to inflict damage to the Liberals.
People who engaged positively on Singh perceived him to be genuine and natural. A highlight for Singh among viewers was when he confronted Maxim Bernier about having a platform to share his controversial views at the debate.
Polly noticed that Elizabeth May also had a strong, positive reception from viewers; according to Polly, 11x more people were talking about May after the debate than before it began.
Conservative leader Andrew Scheer didn’t falter during the debate, but he also didn’t stand out and get the traction he was hoping for. Now, a day after the final English-language debate and less than two weeks out from election day, Scheer finds his party trailing Trudeau and the Liberals.