Trump slowly losing ground

asiadmin | October 16, 2020  | Uncategorised | 18 Comments

Slowly, by fractions of a percentage point, Biden keeps gaining ground. Up by a mere 0.3% — one third of a percentage point — Biden managed to gain 7 electoral college votes overnight. Talk of Kamala Harris, lockdowns and election integrity continue to be a concern of the Republicans but not to the same degree it was last week. Like freshly poured concrete, positions are starting to lose their fluidity as people shift from red to blue and places in between.

At this point, 19 days away from one of America’s most important and historic elections, Trump needs to win another 85 electoral college votes in order to return to the White House in 2021 — an enormous gap to fill. Unfortunately for the Republicans, Trump is trending in the wrong direction. Deep red states like West Virginia, Wyoming and Montana have nudged a bit towards the blue or remained flat while swing states like Florida and Wisconsin have largely stayed on the Democrat side.

States like Virginia, New Mexico have been neck-and-neck since early October but are showing movement towards the Democrats.

It’s worth noting at this point that Polly’s been sampling the same sample of 287,782 Americans; many pollsters use random samples and sample sizes and sometimes mixed polling methods (phone/web/self-reporting, etc). This allows Polly to dive deeper and with more confidence.

To view the interactive chart.

Photo by René DeAnda on Unsplash

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18 thoughts on “Trump slowly losing ground

  1. ‘Unfortunately for the Democrats Trump is trending in the wrong direction’
    Typo??
    Very intriguing approach. I will follow you with interest, especially as I try to follow the impact but do not use social media; and suspected for awhile that polling may be off, missing where society is going. I am a political scientist and media commentator.

  2. When you state ”Trump needs to win another 85 electoral college votes in order to return to the White House in 2021 — an enormous gap to fill. Unfortunately for the Democrats, Trump is trending in the wrong direction.” Would this not be fortunate for the Democrats? Or am I overanalyzing a typo?

  3. Watched the doc on TVO last night and have to say it was mesmerizing. Was especially moved by comments at the end by Kenton White. Have been following your company for some time with great interest in the subject and technology.

  4. Hello,

    Could u please keep me posted on your latest articles and polls with the US elections..
    And would you consider doing the same scientific methodology sampling overseas? i.e.
    Middle East and Africa?
    Thanks alot.
    Don Ngigi.

    1. Thanks for checking in Don! If you follow us on Twitter (@Polly_ASI) you’ll know whenever we post new content. And we can do sampling all over the world in multiple languages. We haven’t yet had any clients in the Middle-East or Africa yet…

  5. As an old computer luddite, I am totally amazed at the amount of data continuously analyzed by Polly.
    After seeing the CNN poling of 290 electoral votes for Biden and 163 for Trump compared to Polly’s 360 Biden and 178 Trump. Is it the Polly algorithm, sample or both that is the difference in such a result for October 22nd?
    ASI is another Canadian bright star!

    1. Thanks Gary! The main difference is Polly’s large sample size…most polls use a sample size of 500 to 2,000 people or use a sampling method that is slightly biased, Polly has a sample of more than 270,000 people and doesn’t ask questions — questions introduce bias.

      Cheers!

      Edmond

  6. Hello my previous comment wasn’t uploaded so I’m reposting my questions. In regards to the model it currently shows Biden with 367 electoral votes with +/- 75 parameters. Does this mean Biden has a 100% chance of receiving above 270 electoral votes for this election? Also, I observed the electoral votes for each candidate fluctuates daily. Does this mean Polly’s results can only be trusted on Election day? Thanks in advance.

    1. Greetings Tim,

      The +/-75 is a metric that shows a margin of error by electoral votes — statistically, the 367 could vary by 75 EV in either direction. In a worst-case scenario for Biden, a 75 EV bump for Trump and 75 EV loss for Biden would still result in an electoral college majority of 292 for Biden to Trump’s hypothetical total of 246. That scenario is highly unlikely but not impossible.

      Polly collects samples from more than 270,000 people across the US and measures their sentiment toward the presidential candidates — a small percentage of those people are centrists or undecided votes whose opinion can shift depending on the issues being discussed. Those shifts, when they occur in the so-called swing states where the difference between the two candidates is less than 4%, can swing the balance of electoral college votes from Red to Blue. Texas, for example, is sitting at about 50% for each candidate (Polly doesn’t factor in people other than Trump and Biden). A tiny shift in sentiment for either candidate can tip the scales for Polly and shift the EV into the other camp.

      Thanks for following Polly!

      Edmond

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