Joe Biden will clinch the Democratic presidential nomination regardless of who Elizabeth Warren endorses or doesn’t endorse, according to Polly, Advanced Symbolics’ AI-based market research and prediction tool. Polly ran through two scenarios — one in which Elizabeth Warren endorses neither candidate and one in which Warren endorses Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Polly sees Joe Biden winning a compelling majority in the three key states of Michigan, Missouri and Washington. This would be a major setback for Sanders; in 2016 he narrowly captured more delegates than Hillary Clinton in Michigan to win that state, yet still lost the nomination. With its 125 delegates, it is the most populous state to vote on Tuesday.
Another tight race for Sanders was in Missouri where Sanders and Clinton were virtually tied at a little over 49% each, with Clinton winning it by one delegate. Not so tight this time around: Polly sees a decisive victory for the former VP with Bernie Sanders garnering a meager 35% of the vote while Biden walks away with almost two-thirds of the votes.
Meanwhile, in Washington state, the race is a bit tighter, yet Polly still forecasts a Biden win with Sanders capturing a respectable 45% of the vote to Biden’s 55%.
Here are Polly’s numbers along with a margin of error for each:
|Biden||59.3% ± 0.6||65.7% ± 1.3||55.4% ± 1.0|
|Sanders||40.7% ± 0.4||34.3% ± 1.2||44.6% ± 0.5|
The sample was taken Sunday, March 8th, 2020.